In a previous blog post, we talked about inclusive skills opportunities and claimed that providing inclusive learning opportunities to many people, ideally to all those lacking basic skills, is a matter of policy priority and social justice. Considering the large number of Europeans who demonstrate only low literacy, numeracy, and digital skills, the Commission declared 2023 as the European Year of Skills. It also encouraged member states to put much more effort on opportunities and initiatives related to upskilling and digital skills.

We also raised the question: what makes young people drop out of school or prevents them from learning how to read, write, do arithmetic, and use ICT technologies? Are poor skills a personal failure or an individual choice? If so, how do we explain the fact that we tend to find more people experiencing poor skills and early school leaving in populations in vulnerable situations (e.g., Roma, foreign-born migrants) or in so-called lagging regions in Europe; that is to say, regions experiencing extremely low growth over time, such as in Greece, Spain, Portugal, or Italy? 

In the Horizon Europe project, CLEAR, we are investigating the factors that affect individual learning outcomes and skills acquisition in European regions alongside partners from eight EU countries. Using data from OECD PIAAC and the EU-Labour Force Survey, we conducted a multi-level analysis and provided a quantitative and comparative assessment on educational (under-)achievement of young adults (between 18 and 34 years old) in Europe. 

We used early school leavers (ESL) as a proxy for educational underachievement and poor learning outcomes. Early school leaving is one of the key indicators within the monitoring system of the EU Commission, as part of an attempt to quantify the insufficient qualification level and underachievement of the EU population. 

But why is that relevant to adult learning? Because the links between participation in initial and further education are quite straightforward. Numerous studies have highlighted that initial educational inequalities perpetuate over a person’s life span, leading to cumulative disadvantages.

Early school leaving: the causes 

What did we find out?

Early school leavers are more frequently foreign-born and often have a parental background that is marked by lower education. Six out of ten are young men. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, these individuals also typically demonstrate poorer literacy, numeracy, and digital competences compared to people who did not drop out early from education. Moreover, they are less likely to partake in non-formal adult education and training (respectively, 24% versus 43% of non-early school leavers) and usually have less work experience. This suggests that the disadvantage of underachievement extends from education and training to the working life, thus translating into remarkable differences in terms of adult competencies and working prospects.

Ever since the Council recommendation of 2011 to reduce early leaving from education and training, European and national policies to tackle early school leaving have been consistent across countries. Did they have an impact? It is believed that they had a positive impact, as the rate of early school leaving decreased on average across Europe from 13.4% in 2011 to 9.6% in 2022. The EU set a target to reduce the share of early leavers from education and training (between 18 and 24 years) to below 9% by 2030. 

However, considerable differences still exist between countries and across demographic groups; people of a migrant background, young men, and those living in rural areas are more likely to leave education before the compulsory school leaving age. That means, the main problem – and its causes – remain, despite being somehow less pronounced now. 

One of the causes can be seen in the complex and cumulative ways by which multiple forms of discrimination (e.g., classism, sexism, and racism) overlap and intersect in the reproduction of educational and social inequalities. These mutually reinforcing forms of discrimination influence individual decisions and actions regarding educational attainment. Another cause can be identified in the fact that socio-spatial contexts can also have both negative and positive effects on individuals and groups regarding educational attainment and skills acquisition, producing unfair distributions of opportunities, uneven access to universal rights, and poor allocation of public goods and services, such as education and training. 

Early school leaving: the effects

In general, in the last 15 years, we have observed a significant decrease in the number of early school leavers across the EU and a general shrinking of regional variations regarding ESL across EU territories. This decrease over time is more pronounced in countries such as Portugal, Spain, or Greece, which all started with high numbers of ESL. In Portugal, most regions went from shares of more than 30% in 2007 to shares of 5-6%. For instance, in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon, the share of ESL dropped drastically from 31.7% to 4.8%. 

However, other areas appear to still be left behind: the Autonomous Regions of Azores went from 49.5% to 26.5% of ESL in 2022, representing a still very high share. In Spain, Cataluna reduced the ESL share from 31.2% in 2007 to 16.9% in 2022, Madrid from 25.8% to 13.2%, and Andalucia from 37.1% to 15.3%. In Greece, regional differences have been quite persistent, with very low shares of ESL in Attika (where such dropped from 10.3% to 3.9%), which represents a strong contrast to regions like Sterea Ellada, where ESL numbers remain high (from 25.3% to 16.9%). 

In other countries, low shares of early school leaving are coupled with diminishing within-country variation, for example, in Germany, Finland, or Austria. In 2022, all Finnish regions had an ESL proportion of between 8 and 9%. In Germany, the improvement is less pronounced, but most regions present ESL shares between 10 and 15%, similarly to 2007.

The significant fragmentation across and within certain countries has helped to underline the importance of associating poor learning outcomes with both individual and country-specific characteristics. 

We know from previous research that national contexts affect individual educational attainment and labour market outcomes. Educational attainment and labour market returns to education heavily depend on the structure of the education system and its integration and linkages to the production and welfare systems. 

So, what do national contexts tell us about the risk of becoming an early school leaver?

There is a vast body of literature on the influence of parental education on the educational attainment of young adults. This is one of the most important indicators to assess intergenerational mobility, the fairness of the educational system, and the reproduction of social inequality through education.

So, what do individual characteristics tell us about the risk of becoming an early school leaver?

Using microdata from the EU-LFS, we further explored in CLEAR a) the influence of parents’ educational background on the educational attainment of young adults (between 20 and 34 years old) and b) the extent to which this influence depends on the national contexts in which young adults live.

It transpired that the effect of low parental education on the educational attainment of young adults is negatively correlated and highly significant in all countries. Low-educated parents often have low income and social capital and, thus, fewer resources (e.g., for additional learning opportunities or a stimulating learning environment), which, in turn, reduce children’s opportunities. Educational disadvantages in childhood and youth can consequently perpetuate over the person’s entire lifetime. Can the state compensate for such disadvantages by investing in adult education and training, upskilling, and reskilling?  

At the individual level, parental education is instrumental in determining young adults' risk of being an early school leaver. The average probability of being an early school leaver increases by over 13% for young adults whose parents received a low level of education. 

Nevertheless, there are clear differences between countries when examining the degree to which the individual risk of being an ESL depends on social background. It seems that, in Eastern European countries, the link between parental education and the educational opportunities of their children is particularly close. The probability of being an early school leaver increases by 63% in Bulgaria if the parents had only a low level of education. In Slovakia, this probability increases by 58%. In contrast, the risk of young adults becoming early school leavers in Croatia increases by only 3.3% if the parents have only a low level of education. 

Thus, if your parents have a low educational background, then you have a higher risk of dropping out from education and training without having finished secondary education. This risk is much higher in some countries than in others. Apparently, these differences can be related to country-specific educational and social policies to compensate such disadvantageous effects of origin through targeted interventions. 

PIAAC data show that underachievement is characterised by an intersectional perspective. Early leavers from education and training demonstrate a low degree of competences, associated also with a low-educated parental background, a migration background, limited participation in further education and training, and a reduction in the number and value of working prospects, thus depicting a cumulative intersectionality of disadvantages. Territorial disparities in underachievement can be further associated with specific regional socio-economic conditions: for instance, living in a rural area with limited education and training provision, a scarcely innovative productive sector, or in an area with low GDP and a high risk of poverty and social exclusion can also affect a person’s life chances.

In conclusion, even if the general trend shows significant improvements and shrinking underachievement as a common trait in EU countries, specific patterns tend to emerge, as well, indicating multiple intersecting risk factors. There is even an uneven spatial distribution of educational opportunities.

Poor learning outcomes can cumulate over a person’s lifespan, having severe negative effects on future life chances and working careers. Thus, the emphasis placed on individuals' own responsibility for failing to reach a certain level of competencies or for not taking up learning opportunities as an adult is rather misleading. In this context, one might instead be tempted to ask what their parents and their country could do in that regard, instead!