Author: Eva Steinheimer, 3s

Artificial intelligence, robots, virtual reality... How are these new technologies changing the way we work and learn? What are the long-term trends for continuing professional development? And what does this mean for dealing with the challenges of the green and digital ‘double transition’? The partner consortium in the Erasmus+ project ‘In-CVET 2040 - Immersion in CVET in 2040’ (2023-2024) approached all these questions with an innovative methodological approach. The result, a magazine full of fictional narratives, stimulates debate.

In the Into-CVET 2040 project, design fiction was used as a complementary perspective to traditional forecasting approaches in order to think ahead to upcoming changes. The aim was neither to predict the future nor to outline a desirable path, but rather to create ‘friction’, stimulate contradiction and thus open up new perspectives and start discussions. This happened during the course of the project, for example, in stakeholder workshops with important players in the areas of national and regional authorities, social partners, employees of further education providers, learners, educational researchers, etc.

Background

But right from the start. The starting point of the project were reflections on existing foresight studies that work with scenario methods, but which were perceived as not far-reaching enough in some respects. Existing scenarios for the future of vocational education and training (VET), for example, focus heavily on initial VET (Cedefop 2023), they are rather general and only marginally consider the dimension of digital and green change, and these scenarios have a tendency to overemphasise external factors for future developments. The Into-CVET 2040 project built on these points by focusing specifically on CVET, taking particular account of internal development factors and focusing more closely on digitalisation and the demand for green skills.

New methodology

The project also broke new ground in terms of methodology and used the ‘design fiction’ approach to develop future scenarios for various aspects of CVET. This method of projecting the future emphasises the immersive character of fiction and its ability to make future changes credible over a longer period of time and differs significantly from conventional scenario methods. The view thus becomes broader and allows us to look beyond existing predictions for initial vocational training. The development process was divided into the following steps:

(1) Identification of tomorrow's key challenges. In this first phase, the partners utilised several ‘academic’ and institutional studies on the future of VET and work to identify the most relevant challenges.

(2) Exploring the consequences. For each challenge, the partners discussed possible consequences for CVET. In this phase, possible resulting ‘provocations’ were also outlined: If these consequences were to become reality tomorrow, who would be most affected and how? Several dozen approaches were explored in this way.

(3) Prototyping. Material prototypes of imagined services or products were used to make the ideas tangible and develop them further. From the ‘what if’ scenarios created in the previous phase, the participants in a design fiction workshop developed models that gave shape to the imaginations and explored their positive and negative consequences. During the discussion of these prototypes, vivid narrative frames were created. The six most effective were selected for further development.

(4) Scenario development. Initial versions of the narrative frameworks were enriched in an exchange between the partners and completed and contextualised into six scenarios to strengthen their credibility. Each scenario included a contextual description, a description of a day in the life of a person connected to the story being told, and a timeline of possible future events leading up to the situation described. Computer-generated images complemented the simulation of a personal point of view. 

(5) Deepening. Two workshops were held with around thirty CVET experts. These policy makers, representatives of funding bodies or providers and experts in adult learning, pedagogy and innovation helped to identify the key aspects of the scenarios and enrich them with new narrative ideas.

(6) Magazine development and design. In the final phase, each scenario was translated into a series of articles and other content to highlight different facets of the topics. This process resulted in journalistic texts, illustrated with appropriate visuals.

Dive into the future with a fictional magazine

The magazine was created with the help of professionals in journalism and graphic design and is available in a French-language print and online version as well as German and English online versions. The background to these stories follows the idea of structural continuity: in 2040, the fundamental principles of our socio-economic system have evolved without radical change. In this context, CVET retains its dual function, serving both economic needs and people's personal and professional development.

The magazine explores three main themes: Skills Development Technologies (‘Skills Tech’), Continuing Education Professions (‘Skills Pros’) and Education Systems in terms of funding and the European dimension (‘Skills Org’). The scenarios combine the reinforcement of current trends with fictitious innovations. Digital technology plays a central role, as does the skills-based approach, which is pursued to the extreme, with its advantages and limitations. Ecology also appears as a central theme in the age of ‘eco-survival’. The magazine is rounded off by a practical section with background information on the project and instructions on how to initiate and moderate (group) discussions on the topic.

We invite all interested parties to take a journey into the future. Get involved with these stories, seek dialogue and take the ideas further. Which aspects open up new possibilities? Which perspectives are more worrying? Which challenges should provoke collective vigilance? And feel free to share your feedback with us!

The Erasmus+ project

The Erasmus+ project ‘Into-CVET 2040’ ran from October 2023 to November 2024, during which time the project partners jointly developed various future scenarios, organised stakeholder workshops and created a fictional magazine as a result. The partnership consisted of:

- Centre Inffo, Information Centre for Vocational Training, France, coordinator

- INFPC, National Institute for Continuing Vocational Training, Luxembourg

- 3s Research & Consulting, research organisation, Austria

- Making Tomorrow, specialists in design fiction

Further information on the background to the project and the partnership can also be found in Skills Mag 2040.

Download of Magazine: DE / EN / FR

Literature

Cedefop (2023). The future of vocational education and training in Europe: synthesis report. Luxembourg: Publications Office. Cedefop reference series; No 125. http://data.europa. eu/doi/10.2801/08824