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First published in Polish by Dorota Gierszewski

Every day, we make thousands of decisions: some trivial, while others are potentially life-changing. Each of them, however insignificant they may seem, has consequences. Many of these decisions relate to everyday activities carried out habitually and needing little thought. However, some require careful thought. Automated decision-making saves our resources but may also lead to substandard decisions. In contrast, critical thinking is a type of decision-making in which a person reflects and considers different options and analyses them. 

Heuristic Thinking

Research into human reasoning has shown that in everyday life, we draw conclusions and make decisions using relatively easy-to-apply processes. We are often happy to use mental shortcuts, and schemas and heuristics govern our thinking. Schemas allow us to organise our knowledge of the social world; they influence what we notice and think about. They act a bit like filters that block out information that contradicts the main ideas. They contain only partial information about a given piece of reality. In contrast, heuristic cognitive simplifications (mental shortcuts) help us deal with information overload and make judgements quickly and efficiently. They are usually beneficial, as they typically provide reasonable, satisfying answers. 

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Nobel Prize-winning cognitive psychologist Herbert Simon^[1] introduced the concept of heuristics in the 1950s. He wrote about bounded rationality, which means people are forced to make decisions with little time, resources, and information. Inspired by Simon's theories, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman^[2] (also a Nobel Prize winner) presented their research on heuristics and cognitive biases in the 1970s. Simon's research showed that the human capacity to make rational decisions is limited. At the same time, Tversky and Kahneman initiated research into heuristics and the specific ways of thinking that people use to simplify decision-making. The authors identified three heuristics often used to assess probabilities: accessibility, representativeness, and anchoring and adjusting heuristics. In the 1990s, German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer^[3] criticised their research, arguing that an "adaptive toolbox" consisting of fast and frugal heuristics can lead to "ecologically rational" decisions. So, in many cases, simple heuristics can be as effective or even better than complex analyses. 

Heuristics have their advantages and disadvantages. And while they can help solve problems faster, they can also lead to inaccurate assessments of people or situations. However, learning about their positive and negative sides can help you use them more effectively and make better decisions. After all, it is worth remembering that making mistakes is an inherent part of our thinking. 

Mindware—Tools for Effective Thinking  

Thinking styles can be seen as mental tools, each appropriate for some tasks and less suitable for others. In the 1980s, psychologist Richard Nisbett and colleagues investigated whether knowing simple rules could help people make decisions.^[4] Nisbett^[5]highlights various tools that have the potential to increase awareness of the need for critical thinking. They are based on rules that can be applied to various everyday situations, both in personal and professional life. Importantly, anyone can learn them. 

Mindware is a set of techniques, principles and strategies that help us think more efficiently. They help us process information more efficiently, solve problems more effectively and make better decisions. They help to cope with a tangle of information and discern important patterns from irrelevant data. The principles of statistical thinking, causal inference, decision theory, and logic can support our thinking. 

The fundamentals of statistical thinking are essential to improve decision-making. One common mistake, for example, is following the law of small numbers, i.e. thinking that a rule that works for small sample sizes will also work for large groups. This involves overinterpreting statistical results from small samples of data. This can lead to overgeneralisation and inference errors. Nisbett presents a practical application of statistical reasoning in everyday life. For example, when we assess health risks (understanding the actual probabilities of medical diagnoses) or make financial decisions (evaluating investment risks and returns). This shows how an informed approach to statistics can influence us to make more reasoned and rational choices. This can protect us against cognitive biases and help us better anticipate the consequences of our decisions.

Causal inference, or understanding cause and effect, is another foundation of informed thinking. It is important to understand that correlation does not imply causation.

Decision theory, on the other hand, focuses on the processes we use when making choices, particularly in situations of uncertainty. It is based on choosing rational alternatives, i.e. options that provide the most significant benefit, considering the available information and your goals. This is linked to the concept of expected utility, which suggests that we should evaluate our own choices, taking into account the value of each possible outcome and its probability. The same applies to cost-benefit analysis, which allows us to systematically determine which choice provides the greatest net benefit. There is also a not insignificant amount of sensitivity analysis to assess how a decision's outcomes are modified as key assumptions change.

Logic, in turn, forms the basis of a well-constructed argument and is key to distinguishing what is true and what is not. What is important here is an understanding of premises, conclusions and their relationships. A logical argument is based on premises, i.e. the assertions that underpin the conclusion. For an argument to be correct, the premises must be connected in a way that unambiguously leads to a conclusion.

As you can see, there are various tools to improve decision-making skills. However, their true power is only revealed when they are applied to real-life situations.

Investing in Critical Thinking 

To invest, or not to invest? That is the question. Critical thinking needs the right conditions to develop. Prof. DiYanni^[6] points out a few key essential qualities: open-mindedness, honesty, flexibility, perseverance, reasonableness, diligence, and focus. This enables one to re-examine arguments, take on different perspectives and be open to lifelong learning. Moreover, what is important is that by noticing the pitfalls that prevent us from thinking objectively, we can avoid thinking irrationally and make sensible decisions.

Equally importantly, critical thinking includes self-control—the self-awareness to manage our own thoughts and motivation to think.^[7] You may want to use Mindware to learn critical thinking and be better equipped to make informed, thoughtful decisions in your everyday life.

dr hab. Dorota Gierszewski – Andragogist, academic lecturer, researcher, trainer, community organiser. She works at the Jagiellonian University. She is interested in issues related to informal adult education, citizenship, migration and interculturalism. EPALE ambassador.

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